ছবি: ফাইল ছবি
Bangladesh’s foreign currency reserve, a critical macroeconomic indicator that reflects a nation’s ability to meet import obligations, stabilize its financial markets, and maintain international payment confidence, has recently undergone both volatility and recovery, shaping its broader economic narrative. After having fallen sharply from nearly USD 48 billion to around USD 20 billion over the past few years—sparking concerns over structural weaknesses, import dependence, and external debt vulnerability—the reserve has now begun to show signs of improvement without relying on disbursements from the International Monetary Fund, which many observers initially considered essential for restoring balance. As of this month, the reserve stands at approximately USD 33 billion and is projected to reach USD 35 billion soon, a development that indicates improved liquidity, stronger remittance inflows, more disciplined import management, and enhanced confidence within the financial system. A 69 percent surge in remittance earnings within the first eighteen days of January and a 6 percent increase in bank deposits during December further suggest that household savings, expatriate income channels, and banking confidence are collectively contributing to macroeconomic stability. Alongside remittances, policy interventions in the foreign exchange market, tighter scrutiny of import bills, and restructuring of monetary tools have helped ease pressure on the currency while enabling greater predictability in pricing and settlement among banks and traders. Nevertheless, inflation remains a major policy challenge as domestic consumers continue to face high commodity prices and reduced purchasing power, underscoring the importance of exchange rate management and monetary adjustments to strengthen the real economy. The growing use of the Purchasing Managers’ Index as a real-time analytical tool has enabled businesses, investors, and foreign observers to assess industrial production, new orders, business sentiment, and employment trends, thereby making Bangladesh’s economic pulse more transparent in global decision-making. The openness of PMI data, unlike many official datasets that are not publicly accessible, has strengthened the country’s visibility and competitiveness in the global investment landscape. Foreign investors, especially within the apparel and export-oriented manufacturing sectors, view the gain in reserve and improved macroeconomic coordination as favorable signals for future expansion. Yet sustainability remains a critical issue: maintaining a stronger reserve requires continued policy consistency, an investment-friendly environment, greater focus on value-added exports, diversified market access, and stronger financial governance to reduce vulnerabilities and currency mismatches. Lessons from regional peers such as Vietnam, China, and India reveal that reserve accumulation is not merely an account of foreign currency holdings but a reflection of resilient economic ecosystems capable of absorbing external shocks. Thus, the progress towards a stronger reserve without borrowing-based support is increasingly interpreted as evidence that Bangladesh can leverage structural reforms, trade competitiveness, and financial discipline to enhance economic security and reinforce its position in global value chains. While challenges persist, the broader implication extends beyond numerical improvements: rebuilding confidence among citizens, institutions, and global stakeholders may prove to be the most enduring dividend of this phase of economic recovery.
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